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Increase of total fuel cost and line capacity for load demand under uncertainty
Author(s) -
Banjo Daisuke,
Hayashi Shigeo,
Tamura Hiroyuki,
Okauchi Taketoshi
Publication year - 2008
Publication title -
electrical engineering in japan
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.136
H-Index - 28
eISSN - 1520-6416
pISSN - 0424-7760
DOI - 10.1002/eej.20480
Subject(s) - margin (machine learning) , sensitivity (control systems) , line (geometry) , hedge , control (management) , control theory (sociology) , reliability engineering , engineering , automotive engineering , economics , computer science , mathematics , electronic engineering , ecology , geometry , management , machine learning , biology
In this paper, the risk of coming across flow neck in electric power systems is considered, and a computational example on expenses required in order to control the risk is shown. Total fuel cost increases by setting a margin which controls the risk. This cost is the necessary cost for the risk hedge. The uncertainty of load demand is assumed to be normal distribution. Then charge of the line flow which is calculated from changes of each load demand is assumed by using sensitivity coefficient. The risk of arising uncertainty of load line flow is shown. In order to control this risk, a margin is introduced, and the relation between this margin and the incremental fuel cost is calculated. This calculation technique can estimate expenses required in order to control the risk arising from uncertainty of load. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Electr Eng Jpn, 164(3): 42–49, 2008; Published online in Wiley InterScience ( www.interscience.wiley.com ). DOI 10.1002/eej.20480