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Evaluation of electric power procurement strategies by stochastic dynamic programming
Author(s) -
Saisho Yuichi,
Hayashi Taketo,
Fujii Yasumasa,
Yamaji Kenji
Publication year - 2007
Publication title -
electrical engineering in japan
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.136
H-Index - 28
eISSN - 1520-6416
pISSN - 0424-7760
DOI - 10.1002/eej.20296
Subject(s) - procurement , electricity , electricity market , stochastic programming , electric power , computer science , electricity generation , mathematical optimization , dynamic programming , electric power system , monte carlo method , operations research , power (physics) , business , engineering , electrical engineering , mathematics , marketing , statistics , physics , quantum mechanics
In deregulated electricity markets, the role of a distribution company is to purchase electricity from the wholesale electricity market at randomly fluctuating prices and to provide it to its customers at a given fixed price. Therefore, the company has to take risk stemming from the uncertainties of electricity prices and/or demand fluctuation instead of the customers. The way to avoid the risk is to make a bilateral contract with generating companies or install its own power generation facility. This entails the necessity to develop a certain method to make an optimal strategy for electric power procurement. In such a circumstance, this research proposes a mathematical method based on stochastic dynamic programming and considers the characteristics of the start‐up cost of an electric power generation facility to evaluate strategies of combination of the bilateral contract and power auto‐generation with its own facility for procuring electric power in a deregulated electricity market. In the beginning we proposed two approaches to solve the stochastic dynamic programming, and they are a Monte Carlo simulation method and a finite difference method to derive the solution of a partial differential equation of the total procurement cost of electric power. Finally we discussed the influences of the prime uncertainty on optimal strategies of power procurement. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Electr Eng Jpn, 160(2): 20–29, 2007; Published online in Wiley InterScience ( www.interscience.wiley.com ). DOI 10.1002/eej.20296