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The indirect paths to cascading effects of extinctions in mutualistic networks
Author(s) -
Pires Mathias M.,
O'Donnell James L.,
Burkle Laura A.,
DíazCastelazo Cecilia,
Hembry David H.,
Yeakel Justin D.,
Newman Erica A.,
Medeiros Lucas P.,
Aguiar Marcus A. M.,
Guimarães Paulo R.
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
ecology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.144
H-Index - 294
eISSN - 1939-9170
pISSN - 0012-9658
DOI - 10.1002/ecy.3080
Subject(s) - extinction (optical mineralogy) , ecological network , vulnerability (computing) , biodiversity , ecology , extinction debt , environmental resource management , biology , computer science , environmental science , ecosystem , habitat destruction , paleontology , computer security
Biodiversity loss is a hallmark of our times, but predicting its consequences is challenging. Ecological interactions form complex networks with multiple direct and indirect paths through which the impacts of an extinction may propagate. Here we show that accounting for these multiple paths connecting species is necessary to predict how extinctions affect the integrity of ecological networks. Using an approach initially developed for the study of information flow, we estimate indirect effects in plant–pollinator networks and find that even those species with several direct interactions may have much of their influence over others through long indirect paths. Next, we perform extinction simulations in those networks and show that although traditional connectivity metrics fail in the prediction of coextinction patterns, accounting for indirect interaction paths allows predicting species’ vulnerability to the cascading effects of an extinction event. Embracing the structural complexity of ecological systems contributes towards a more predictive ecology, which is of paramount importance amid the current biodiversity crisis.