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Pacific Decadal and El Niño oscillations shape survival of a seabird
Author(s) -
Champag Jocelyn,
Lebreton JeanDominique,
Drummond Hugh,
Anderson David J.
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
ecology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.144
H-Index - 294
eISSN - 1939-9170
pISSN - 0012-9658
DOI - 10.1002/ecy.2179
Subject(s) - seabird , pacific decadal oscillation , pelagic zone , trophic level , ecology , predation , population , biology , el niño southern oscillation , climate change , abundance (ecology) , environmental science , geography , oceanography , climatology , demography , geology , sociology
Understanding and modeling population change is urgently needed to predict effects of climate change on biodiversity. High trophic‐level organisms are influenced by fluctuations of prey quality and abundance, which themselves may depend on climate oscillations. Modeling effects of such fluctuations is challenging because prey populations may vary with multiple climate oscillations occurring at different time scales. The analysis of a 28‐yr time series of capture–recapture data of a tropical seabird, the Nazca Booby ( Sula granti ), in the Galápagos, Ecuador, allowed us to test for demographic effects of two major ocean oscillations occurring at distinct time‐scales: the inter‐annual El Niño Southern Oscillation ( ENSO ) and inter‐decadal oscillations. As expected for a tropical seabird, survival of fledgling birds was highly affected by extreme ENSO events; by contrast, neither recruitment nor breeding participation were affected by either ENSO or decadal oscillations. More interesting, adult survival, a demographic trait that canalizes response to environmental variations, was unaffected by inter‐annual ENSO oscillations yet was shaped by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and small pelagic fish regime. Adult survival decreased during oceanic conditions associated with higher breeding success, an association probably mediated in this species by costs of reproduction that reduce survival when breeding attempts end later. To our knowledge, this is the first study suggesting that survival of a vertebrate can be vulnerable to a natural multidecadal oscillation.