Premium
Viability of cyclic populations
Author(s) -
Singer Alexander,
Frank Karin
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
ecology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.144
H-Index - 294
eISSN - 1939-9170
pISSN - 0012-9658
DOI - 10.1002/ecy.1564
Subject(s) - population viability analysis , trophic level , ecology , population , extinction (optical mineralogy) , vulnerability (computing) , biodiversity , biology , geography , habitat , computer science , demography , endangered species , paleontology , computer security , sociology
Theory on viability of small populations is well developed and has led to the standard methodology of population viability analysis ( PVA ) to assess vulnerability of single species. However, more complex situations involving community dynamics or environmental change violate theoretical assumptions. Synthesizing concepts from population, community, and conservation ecology, we develop a generic theory on the viability of cyclic populations. The interplay of periodic population decline and demography causes varying risk patterns that aggregate during cycles and modify the temporal structure of viability. This variability is visualized and quantitatively assessed. For two standard viability metrics that summarize immediate extinction risk and the general long‐term conditions of populations, we mathematically describe the impact of population cycles. Finally, we suggest and demonstrate PVA for cyclic populations that respond to, e.g., seasonality, interannual variation, or trophic interactions. Our theoretical and methodological advancement opens a route to viability analysis in food webs and trophic meta‐communities and equips biodiversity conservation with a long‐missing tool.