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Prediction of travel time in urban district based on state equation
Author(s) -
Hiramatsu Ayako,
Nose Kazuo,
Tenmoku Kenji,
Morita Takeshi
Publication year - 2009
Publication title -
electronics and communications in japan
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.131
H-Index - 13
eISSN - 1942-9541
pISSN - 1942-9533
DOI - 10.1002/ecj.10089
Subject(s) - travel time , computer science , time series , state (computer science) , mean squared prediction error , transport engineering , series (stratigraphy) , travel behavior , operations research , presentation (obstetrics) , data mining , statistics , simulation , algorithm , engineering , mathematics , machine learning , paleontology , biology , medicine , radiology
The presentation of travel time information to drivers is one of the important roles of information systems concerned with road traffic. This paper proposes a method for predicting the travel time in urban districts using travel time data from the small sections which make up a route. The forecasting model consists of past time series data on the travel times in the small sections. The travel time for the route in the near future and its accuracy are estimated by using a state equation of the forecasting model. The validity of the method is verified using real data. Validation showed that the prediction error was approximately 2.5 minutes. Generally, for 50 minutes of travel time, it is desirable that the prediction error be within 5 minutes. Therefore, this result appears satisfactory for practical use. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Electron Comm Jpn, 92(7): 1–11, 2009; Published online in Wiley InterScience ( www.interscience.wiley.com ). DOI 10.1002/ecj.10089