Open AccessInfluence of air temperature on the first flowering date of Prunus yedoensis Matsum
Author(s) -
Shi Peijian,
Chen Zhenghong,
Yang Qingpei,
Harris Marvin K.,
Xiao Mei
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
ecology and evolution
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.17
H-Index - 63
ISSN - 2045-7758
DOI - 10.1002/ece3.442
Subject(s) - air temperature , degree (music) , prunus , horticulture , climate change , environmental science , mathematics , correlation coefficient , statistics , biology , meteorology , geography , ecology , physics , acoustics
Climate change is expected to have a significant effect on the first flowering date ( FFD ) in plants flowering in early spring. Prunus yedoensis Matsum is a good model plant for analyzing this effect. In this study, we used a degree day model to analyze the effect of air temperatures on the FFD s of P. yedoensis at Wuhan University from a long‐time series from 1951 to 2012. First, the starting date (=7 February) is determined according to the lowest correlation coefficient between the FFD and the daily average accumulated degree days ( ADD ). Second, the base temperature (=−1.2°C) is determined according to the lowest root mean square error ( RMSE ) between the observed and predicted FFD s based on the mean of 62‐year ADD s. Finally, based on this combination of starting date and base temperature, the daily average ADD of every year was calculated. Performing a linear fit of the daily average ADD to year, we find that there is an increasing trend that indicates climate warming from a biological climatic indicator. In addition, we find that the minimum annual temperature also has a significant effect on the FFD of P. yedoensis using the generalized additive model. This study provides a method for analyzing the climate change on the FFD in plants' flowering in early spring.