Open AccessEarly warning signals detect critical impacts of experimental warming
Author(s) -
Jarvis Lauren,
McCann Kevin,
Tunney Tyler,
Gellner Gabriel,
Fryxell John M.
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
ecology and evolution
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.17
H-Index - 63
ISSN - 2045-7758
DOI - 10.1002/ece3.2339
Subject(s) - warning system , population , climate change , environmental science , global warming , extinction (optical mineralogy) , trait , ecosystem , biodiversity , climatology , ecology , computer science , biology , geology , demography , telecommunications , paleontology , sociology , programming language
Earth's surface temperatures are projected to increase by ~1–4°C over the next century, threatening the future of global biodiversity and ecosystem stability. While this has fueled major progress in the field of physiological trait responses to warming, it is currently unclear whether routine population monitoring data can be used to predict temperature‐induced population collapse. Here, we integrate trait performance theory with that of critical tipping points to test whether early warning signals can be reliably used to anticipate thermally induced extinction events. We find that a model parameterized by experimental growth rates exhibits critical slowing down in the vicinity of an experimentally tested critical threshold, suggesting that dynamical early warning signals may be useful in detecting the potentially precipitous onset of population collapse due to global climate change.