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Selective detection of histologically aggressive prostate cancer
Author(s) -
Williams Stephen B.,
Salami Simpa,
Regan Meredith M.,
Ankerst Donna P.,
Wei John T.,
Rubin Mark A.,
Thompson Ian M.,
Sanda Martin G.
Publication year - 2011
Publication title -
cancer
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 3.052
H-Index - 304
eISSN - 1097-0142
pISSN - 0008-543X
DOI - 10.1002/cncr.26396
Subject(s) - medicine , prostate cancer , biopsy , cancer , rectal examination , prostate , prostate biopsy , oncology , cohort , prospective cohort study , urology
Abstract BACKGROUND: Limited survival benefit and excess treatment because of prostate‐specific antigen (PSA) screening in randomized trials suggests a need for more restricted selection of prostate biopsy candidates by discerning risk of histologically aggressive versus indolent cancer before biopsy. METHODS: Subjects undergoing first prostate biopsy enrolled in a multicenter, prospective cohort of the National Cancer Institute Early Detection Research Network (N = 635) were analyzed to develop a model for predicting histologically aggressive prostate cancers. The control arm of the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial (N = 3833) was used to validate the generalization of the predictive model. RESULTS: The Early Detection Research Network cohort was comprised of men among whom 57% had no cancer, 14% had indolent cancer, and 29% had aggressive cancer. Age, body mass index, family history of prostate cancer, abnormal digital rectal examination (DRE), and PSA density (PSAD) were associated with aggressive cancer (all P < .001). The Early Detection Research Network model outperformed PSA alone in predicting aggressive cancer (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.81 vs 0.71, P < .01). Model validation in the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial cohort accurately identified men at low (<10%) risk of aggressive cancer for whom biopsy could be averted (AUC = 0.78; 95% confidence interval, 0.75‐0.80). Under criteria from the Early Detection Research Network model, prostate biopsy can be restricted to men with PSAD >0.1 ng/mL/cc or abnormal DRE. When PSAD is <0.1 ng/mL/cc, family history or obesity can identify biopsy candidates. CONCLUSIONS: A predictive model incorporating age, family history, obesity, PSAD, and DRE elucidates criteria whereby ¼ of prostate biopsies can be averted while retaining high sensitivity in detecting aggressive prostate cancer. Cancer 2011. © 2011 American Cancer Society.