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Predicting individual risk of neutropenic complications in patients receiving cancer chemotherapy
Author(s) -
Lyman Gary H.,
Kuderer Nicole M.,
Crawford Jeffrey,
Wolff Debra A.,
Culakova Eva,
Poniewierski Marek S.,
Dale David C.
Publication year - 2010
Publication title -
cancer
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 3.052
H-Index - 304
eISSN - 1097-0142
pISSN - 0008-543X
DOI - 10.1002/cncr.25691
Subject(s) - medicine , febrile neutropenia , neutropenia , prospective cohort study , chemotherapy , population , cancer , chemotherapy regimen , univariate analysis , cohort , regimen , oncology , surgery , multivariate analysis , environmental health
BACKGROUND: A prospective cohort study was undertaken to develop and validate a risk model for neutropenic complications in cancer patients receiving chemotherapy. METHODS: The study population consisted of 3760 patients with common solid tumors or malignant lymphoma who were beginning a new chemotherapy regimen at 115 practice sites throughout the United States. A regression model for neutropenic complications was developed and then validated by using a random split‐sample selection process. RESULTS: No significant differences in the derivation and validation populations were observed. The risk of neutropenic complications was greatest in cycle 1 with no significant difference in predicted risk between the 2 cohorts in univariate analysis. After adjustment for cancer type and age, major independent risk factors in multivariate analysis included: prior chemotherapy, abnormal hepatic and renal function, low white blood count, chemotherapy and planned delivery ≥85%. At a predicted risk cutpoint of 10%, model test performance included: sensitivity 90%, specificity 59%, and predictive value positive and negative of 34% and 96%, respectively. Further analysis confirmed model discrimination for risk of febrile neutropenia over multiple chemotherapy cycles. CONCLUSIONS: A risk model for neutropenic complications was developed and validated in a large prospective cohort of patients who were beginning cancer chemotherapy that may guide the effective and cost‐effective use of available supportive care. Cancer 2011. © 2010 American Cancer Society.