Open AccessDevelopment of an optimized risk score to predict short‐term death among acute myocardial infarction patients in rural China
Author(s) -
Wang Shengji,
Cheng ZhenXiu,
Fan Xiaoting,
Lian Yonggang
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
clinical cardiology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.263
H-Index - 72
eISSN - 1932-8737
pISSN - 0160-9289
DOI - 10.1002/clc.23598
Subject(s) - medicine , killip class , cohort , myocardial infarction , framingham risk score , percutaneous coronary intervention , receiver operating characteristic , cardiology , risk assessment , cohort study , disease , computer security , computer science
Background Risk stratification of patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is of great clinical significance. Hypothesis The present study aimed to establish an optimized risk score to predict short‐term (6‐month) death among rural AMI patients from China. Methods We enrolled 6581 AMI patients and extracted relevant data. Patients were divided chronologically into a derivation cohort ( n = 5539), to establish the multivariable risk prediction model, and a validation cohort ( n = 1042), to validate the risk score. Results Six variables were identified as independent predictors of short‐term death and were used to establish the risk score: age, Killip class, blood glucose, creatinine, pulmonary artery systolic pressure, and percutaneous coronary intervention treatment. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the optimized risk score was 0.82 within the derivation cohort and 0.81 within the validation cohort. The diagnostic performance of the optimized risk score was superior to that of the GRACE risk score (AUC 0.76 and 0.75 in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively; p < .05). Conclusion These results indicate that the optimized scoring method developed here is a simple and valuable instrument to accurately predict the risk of short‐term mortality in rural patients with AMI.