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A stochastic graph process for epidemic modelling
Author(s) -
Hosseinkashi Yasaman,
Chenouri Shojaeddin,
Small Christopher G.,
Deardon Rob
Publication year - 2012
Publication title -
canadian journal of statistics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.804
H-Index - 51
eISSN - 1708-945X
pISSN - 0319-5724
DOI - 10.1002/cjs.10142
Subject(s) - outbreak , graph , markov chain , markov process , infectious disease (medical specialty) , computer science , mathematics , statistics , combinatorics , biology , medicine , disease , virology , pathology
A stochastic graph process with a Markov property is introduced to model the flow of an infectious disease over a known contact network. The model provides a probability distribution over unobserved infectious pathways. The basic reproductive number in compartmental models is generalized to a dynamic reproductive number based on the sequence of outdegrees in the graph process. The cumulative resistance and threat associated with each individual is also measured based on the cumulative indegree and outdegree of the graph process. The model is applied to the outbreak data from the 2001 foot‐and‐mouth (FMD) outbreak in the United Kingdom. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 40: 55–67; 2012 © 2012 Statistical Society of Canada