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Spatio‐temporal modelling of disease mapping of rates
Author(s) -
Torabi Mahmoud,
Rosychuk Rhonda J.
Publication year - 2010
Publication title -
canadian journal of statistics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.804
H-Index - 51
eISSN - 1708-945X
pISSN - 0319-5724
DOI - 10.1002/cjs.10073
Subject(s) - smoothing , autoregressive model , generalized additive model , random effects model , statistics , econometrics , geography , mathematics , medicine , meta analysis
This paper studies generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) for the analysis of geographic and temporal variability of disease rates. This class of models adopts spatially correlated random effects and random temporal components. Spatio‐temporal models that use conditional autoregressive smoothing across the spatial dimension and autoregressive smoothing over the temporal dimension are developed. The model also accommodates the interaction between space and time. However, the effect of seasonal factors has not been previously addressed and in some applications (e.g., health conditions), these effects may not be negligible. The authors incorporate the seasonal effects of month and possibly year as part of the proposed model and estimate model parameters through generalized estimating equations. The model provides smoothed maps of disease risk and eliminates the instability of estimates in low‐population areas while maintaining geographic resolution. They illustrate the approach using a monthly data set of the number of asthma presentations made by children to Emergency Departments (EDs) in the province of Alberta, Canada, during the period 2001–2004. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 38: 698–715; 2010 © 2010 Statistical Society of Canada