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Bent‐cable regression with autoregressive noise
Author(s) -
Chiu Grace S.,
Lockhart Richard A.
Publication year - 2010
Publication title -
canadian journal of statistics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.804
H-Index - 51
eISSN - 1708-945X
pISSN - 0319-5724
DOI - 10.1002/cjs.10070
Subject(s) - autoregressive model , bent molecular geometry , segmented regression , noise (video) , autocorrelation , series (stratigraphy) , statistics , regression , regression analysis , mathematics , piecewise , econometrics , computer science , engineering , mathematical analysis , nonlinear regression , structural engineering , geology , artificial intelligence , paleontology , image (mathematics)
Motivated by time series of atmospheric concentrations of certain pollutants the authors develop bent‐cable regression for autocorrelated errors. Bent‐cable regression extends the popular piecewise linear (broken‐stick) model, allowing for a smooth change region of any non‐negative width. Here the authors consider autoregressive noise added to a bent‐cable mean structure, with unknown regression and time series parameters. They develop asymptotic theory for conditional least‐squares estimation in a triangular array framework, wherein each segment of the bent cable contains an increasing number of observations while the autoregressive order remains constant as the sample size grows. They explore the theory in a simulation study, develop implementation details, apply the methodology to the motivating pollutant dataset, and provide a scientific interpretation of the bent‐cable change point not discussed previously. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 38: 386–407; 2010 © 2010 Statistical Society of Canada