Premium
Estimation of the default risk of publicly traded companies: evidence from Canadian data
Author(s) -
Dionne Georges,
Laajimi Sadok,
Mejri Sofiane,
Petrescu Madalina
Publication year - 2008
Publication title -
canadian journal of administrative sciences / revue canadienne des sciences de l'administration
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.347
H-Index - 48
eISSN - 1936-4490
pISSN - 0825-0383
DOI - 10.1002/cjas.62
Subject(s) - econometrics , default risk , risk model , value (mathematics) , actuarial science , maximum likelihood , economics , business , accounting , financial economics , statistics , credit risk , mathematics
Through Canadian publicly traded companies, this study assessed how combining firms' continuous valuations by the market (structural model) with the value given in their financial statements (accounting model) could enhance prediction of a company's probability of default. The hybrid model outperformed other models. Specifically, estimated structural probabilities of default (PDs) contributed significantly to predicting default probabilities when they were included alongside accounting and macroeconomic variables in our hybrid model. These results were obtained with two versions of the structural model: the Merton model (Merton, 1973, 1974) and the default barrier model (Brockman & Turtle, 2003). Both models were estimated with the maximum likelihood method. Copyright © 2008 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.