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Managing uncertainty in the clinical prediction of risk of harm: Bringing a Bayesian approach to forensic mental health
Author(s) -
Duggan Conor,
Jones Roland
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
criminal behaviour and mental health
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.63
H-Index - 54
eISSN - 1471-2857
pISSN - 0957-9664
DOI - 10.1002/cbm.2031
Subject(s) - harm , bayesian probability , mental health , event (particle physics) , forensic science , psychology , computer science , psychiatry , medicine , artificial intelligence , social psychology , physics , quantum mechanics , veterinary medicine
Predicting the likelihood of harm posed by mentally disordered offenders remains controversial. It is proposed that a Bayesian approach may help quantify the uncertainty surrounding such prediction. An example of this approach quantifying the risk of breast cancer in the event of a positive mammogram is provided. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.