Premium
CNV predicts violent outcomes in patients released from special hospital
Author(s) -
Howard Rick,
Lumsden John
Publication year - 1997
Publication title -
criminal behaviour and mental health
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.63
H-Index - 54
eISSN - 1471-2857
pISSN - 0957-9664
DOI - 10.1002/cbm.176
Subject(s) - recidivism , psychology , psychiatry , sample (material) , risk assessment , medicine , clinical psychology , demography , computer security , sociology , chemistry , chromatography , computer science
The ability of the Go/No Go contingent negative variation (CNV) to predict violent outcomes (violent re‐offending and suicide) was investigated in a sample of 44 male Broadmoor patients previously (in 1983) categorised as high or low risk on the basis of their Go/No Go CNV. An earlier (December 1990) follow‐up of the same sample had indicated that general criminal recidivism could be predicted by Go/No Go CNV (Howard & Lumsden, 1996). At 31 December 1994 a violent outcome had occurred in five of 21 high‐risk patients and in one of 23 low‐risk patients, yielding a predictive accuracy of 61.4% and a relative improvement over chance of 68%. High‐risk patients incurred five times as many violent reconvictions as did low‐risk patients. These results, whilst preliminary pending further follow‐up, offer the promise that the tragic consequences of releasing high‐risk mentally disordered offenders into the community might be prevented using a technique that is quick, cheap to administer and objective. Copyright © 1997 Whurr Publishers Ltd.