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An eigenvalue method of obtaining subjective probabilities
Author(s) -
Yager Ronald R.
Publication year - 1979
Publication title -
behavioral science
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.371
H-Index - 45
eISSN - 1099-1743
pISSN - 0005-7940
DOI - 10.1002/bs.3830240604
Subject(s) - eigenvalues and eigenvectors , set (abstract data type) , decision maker , matrix (chemical analysis) , mathematics , statistics , computer science , mathematical optimization , operations research , physics , materials science , quantum mechanics , composite material , programming language
This article deals with decision making by individual persons, living systems at the organism level. It presents a methodology for extracting a set of subjective probabilities from such a decision maker. The method involves obtaining an N × N matrix of compared probabilities and then finding the maximum eigenvalue of this matrix. The unit eigenvector associated with this maximum eigenvalue contains the desired subjective probabilities. The results of an experiment which compared this method with other methods of eliciting subjective probabilities are discussed.