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Urban systems dynamics: A comparative static analysis of system sizes with some policy implications
Author(s) -
Huang C. C.,
Mueller D.,
Vertinsky I.
Publication year - 1976
Publication title -
behavioral science
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.371
H-Index - 45
eISSN - 1099-1743
pISSN - 0005-7940
DOI - 10.1002/bs.3830210407
Subject(s) - externality , economics , returns to scale , econometrics , population , population size , scale (ratio) , crowding , microeconomics , simple (philosophy) , economic geography , geography , sociology , psychology , cognitive psychology , production (economics) , demography , philosophy , cartography , epistemology
This paper develops a simple model of population change in a system at the organizational level of an urban community. It assumes that some activities are characterized by decreasing returns to scale (crowding and congestion problems), others by increasing returns to scale (positive externalities). The interaction of these two forces on population movements can make possible the existence of multiple equilibria of city sizes. Policies intended to expand or contract city size are shown to be, under certain conditions, subject to perverse changes in city size and rapid movements to substantially higher or lower size equilibria. These results are shown to be robust with respect to the choice of both objective and reaction functions. Although no attempt is made to derive a full predictive‐explanatory model of city population changes, the models are thought to provide insight into some of the processes and problems that may characterize urban growth. Comparisons are made with growth of other living systems.