Premium
The determinants of fertility: A theoretical forecasting model
Author(s) -
Fish Mary,
Thompson Arthur A.
Publication year - 1970
Publication title -
behavioral science
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.371
H-Index - 45
eISSN - 1099-1743
pISSN - 0005-7940
DOI - 10.1002/bs.3830150404
Subject(s) - fertility , socioeconomic status , total fertility rate , population , per capita , markov chain , economics , per capita income , econometrics , socioeconomic development , demography , statistics , mathematics , economic growth , sociology , research methodology , family planning
The conceptual framework of a fertility model for forecasting population changes is presented. Beginning with the individual state of a fecund woman in a given year, the model considers the impact of three factors on her decision‐making process with respect to fertility in the following year. The model uses a four state Markov chain, with transitional probabilities based upon the decision process of each woman aged 14–45 as it is affected by the annual rate of change in real per capita income, in level of education and in rural‐urban employment. From the Markov chain, the number of live births that can be expected in a future time period given the size of the female population of childbearing age and the impact of economic development can be estimated. Thus, the model attempts to develop a theory of fertility that conceptually interrelates significant socioeconomic factors, individual behavior and the process of economic development, thereby providing a tool for predicting future births. Provisions to refine the model by incorporating additional socioeconomic factors are suggested.