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A Martingale Approach to the Investigation of the Duration of a Mild Epidemic
Author(s) -
Biswas Suddhendu,
Thomas Mariamma
Publication year - 1989
Publication title -
biometrical journal
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.108
H-Index - 63
eISSN - 1521-4036
pISSN - 0323-3847
DOI - 10.1002/bimj.4710310414
Subject(s) - duration (music) , mathematics , martingale (probability theory) , statistics , epidemic model , econometrics , demography , physics , population , sociology , acoustics
The present paper is an attempt to evolve a simple methodology to obtain the steady state solution of the duration of a mild epidemic (like conjunctivitis, for which the period of sickness is about a week and the period of immunity following recovery is comparatively large) and also the intensity of the epidemic measured by the number of infections during the complete spell of the epidemic. The methodology consists of constructing Martingales based on subcritical and supercritical forms of a Simple Branching Process; and obtaining the stopping time enabling to evaluate the expected duration of the epidemic and the sampling variance together with the intensity of the epidemic.