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A model for the spread of an epidemic
Author(s) -
Längeb H.
Publication year - 1980
Publication title -
biometrical journal
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.108
H-Index - 63
eISSN - 1521-4036
pISSN - 0323-3847
DOI - 10.1002/bimj.4710220505
Subject(s) - recursion (computer science) , moment (physics) , mathematics , set (abstract data type) , variance (accounting) , expected value , epidemic model , value (mathematics) , discrete time and continuous time , statistics , econometrics , mathematical economics , computer science , algorithm , economics , demography , physics , accounting , classical mechanics , sociology , population , programming language
A temporally continuous and spatially discrete stochastic model for the spread of an epidemic within some set of holdings is constructed. A recursion formula is given for the probability that a certain set of holdings is infected at a certain moment. Moreover, under an additional condition (which will always be satisfied in practice) a formula for the expected value and the variance of the moment when a certain holding is infected the first time is given.