Premium
A Stochastic Model for Estimating Adolescent Sterility
Author(s) -
Nair N. U.
Publication year - 1983
Publication title -
biometrical journal
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.108
H-Index - 63
eISSN - 1521-4036
pISSN - 0323-3847
DOI - 10.1002/bimj.19830250607
Subject(s) - sterility , stochastic modelling , simple (philosophy) , mathematics , statistics , econometrics , cohort , biology , genetics , philosophy , epistemology
In this article, a simple stochastic model for the time to first conception of a cohort of married women is developed, by identifying three states, ‘adolescent sterile’, ‘ovulating’ and ‘conceived‘, into which they can be placed. It is demonstrated that the model provides a close fit to observed data. The estimates of the parameters in the model, can be used to calculate the number of women in each state at different points of time and also to obtain estimates of the probabilities of conception for the two categories of women, adolescent sterile and biologically mature.