Premium
Regression to the mean and football wagers
Author(s) -
Lee Marcus,
Smith Gary
Publication year - 2002
Publication title -
journal of behavioral decision making
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.136
H-Index - 76
eISSN - 1099-0771
pISSN - 0894-3257
DOI - 10.1002/bdm.418
Subject(s) - football , regression toward the mean , imperfect , psychology , regression , measure (data warehouse) , regression analysis , econometrics , statistics , college football , computer science , economics , mathematics , political science , law , data mining , linguistics , philosophy
Football performances are an imperfect measure of abilities, and consequently exaggerate differences in abilities. The skills of those football teams that perform the best and the worst are not really that far from average; thus their future performances regress to the mean. Betting data indicate that gamblers do not fully account for this regression. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.