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What is wrong with Allais' Certainty Effect?
Author(s) -
Li Shu
Publication year - 1993
Publication title -
journal of behavioral decision making
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.136
H-Index - 76
eISSN - 1099-0771
pISSN - 0894-3257
DOI - 10.1002/bdm.3960060405
Subject(s) - certainty , prospect theory , expected utility hypothesis , mathematical economics , economics , mathematics , microeconomics , geometry
Several choice situations are constructed to explore whether the violation of expected utility theory in an Allais paradox choice situation can be attributed to what Tversky and Kahneman (1986) describe as the Allais certainty effect. Problems are developed where the Allais certainty effect would be expected to occur but results show it does not. Other problems demonstrate that the Allais ‘paradox’ is observed in the absence of the Allais certainty effect. The study concludes that, although expected utility theory is known to be wrong through the Allais paradox, the Allais certainty effect does not appear to be able to rescue it.

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