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Judgment in a dynamic task: Microburst forecasting
Author(s) -
Lusk Cynthia M.,
Hammond Kenneth R.
Publication year - 1991
Publication title -
journal of behavioral decision making
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.136
H-Index - 76
eISSN - 1099-0771
pISSN - 0894-3257
DOI - 10.1002/bdm.3960040105
Subject(s) - perception , microburst , task (project management) , psychology , cognitive psychology , social psychology , wind speed , management , wind shear , neuroscience , meteorology , economics , physics
Abstract The major goals of this research are to (a) study professionals engaging in dynamic, representative task conditions, (b) apply lens model theory to these conditions, (c) learn how judgments are changed in response to changing conditions, and (d) utilize a hierarchical judgment model to investigate the judgment process from perception of data to final judgment. The results indicate that (a) agreement regarding inferred cue values is modest, not because of differences in perception of proximal, directly observed cue values but because of differences in inferences drawn from them, (b) agreement in probability judgments is higher when inferred cue values are specified, (c) little change in judgments occurred over time, and (d) confidence increased over time. The results regarding agreement and accuracy over time were ambiguous.