Open AccessForecasting downtime event durations for the Morgantown people mover
Author(s) -
Neumann Edward S.,
Dede Abel D. I.,
Hendershot Robert B.
Publication year - 1987
Publication title -
journal of advanced transportation
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.577
H-Index - 46
eISSN - 2042-3195
pISSN - 0197-6729
DOI - 10.1002/atr.5670210203
Subject(s) - downtime , duration (music) , variance (accounting) , engineering , reliability engineering , operations research , operations management , art , business , literature , accounting
A model was developed to forecast the duration of emergency shut downs of the Morgantown People Mover. An extensive data base of downtime events for a 2 1/2 year period were analyzed. Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) methods were applied to determine the significance of five variables which were hypothesized to influence downtime duration, including physical sub‐system, restartablity, location of failure, number of vehicles in the system, and level of demand. Results of the analysis enable MPM system operators to provide improved information to system users during downtime events. The forecasting methodology also enables operators to evaluate alternative user management strategies during downtimes.