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Future pricing through homogeneous semi‐Markov processes
Author(s) -
Di Biase Giuseppe,
Janssen Jacques,
Manca Raimondo
Publication year - 2005
Publication title -
applied stochastic models in business and industry
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.413
H-Index - 40
eISSN - 1526-4025
pISSN - 1524-1904
DOI - 10.1002/asmb.597
Subject(s) - homogeneous , markov process , markov chain , econometrics , computer science , mathematical economics , markov model , operations research , economics , mathematical optimization , mathematics , statistics , machine learning , combinatorics
An Erratum for this article has been published in Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry 2005; (in press) This paper presents a future pricing model based on the discrete time homogeneous semi‐Markov process (DTHSMP). The model is adapted to the real data of the Italian primary future stock index. After showing the pricing model, the DTHSMP solution is given. The solution of the semi‐Markov process gives, for each period of the considered horizon time, and for each starting state, the probability distribution of the future price. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.