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Modeling first bid in retail secondary market online auctions: A Bayesian approach
Author(s) -
Zafari Babak,
Soyer Refik
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
applied stochastic models in business and industry
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.413
H-Index - 40
eISSN - 1526-4025
pISSN - 1524-1904
DOI - 10.1002/asmb.2498
Subject(s) - common value auction , computer science , bayesian probability , probit model , probit , bayesian inference , econometrics , focus (optics) , economics , machine learning , artificial intelligence , microeconomics , physics , optics
We propose a Bayesian framework to model bid placement time in retail secondary market online business‐to‐business auctions. In doing so, we propose a Bayesian beta regression model to predict the first bidder and time to first bid, and a dynamic probit model to analyze participation. In our development, we consider both auction‐specific and bidder‐specific explanatory variables. While we primarily focus on the predictive performance of the models, we also discuss how auction features and bidders' heterogeneity could affect the bid timings, as well as auction participation. We illustrate the implementation of our models by applying to actual auction data and discuss additional insights provided by the Bayesian approach, which can benefit auctioneers.