Premium
MCMC calibration of spot‐prices models in electricity markets
Author(s) -
Guerini Alice,
Marziali Andrea,
De Nicolao Giuseppe
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
applied stochastic models in business and industry
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.413
H-Index - 40
eISSN - 1526-4025
pISSN - 1524-1904
DOI - 10.1002/asmb.2471
Subject(s) - markov chain monte carlo , bayesian probability , econometrics , calibration , stochastic volatility , spot contract , volatility (finance) , computer science , posterior probability , expectation–maximization algorithm , monte carlo method , mathematical optimization , maximum likelihood , statistics , mathematics , economics , artificial intelligence , financial economics , futures contract
The calibration of some stochastic differential equation used to model spot prices in electricity markets is investigated. As an alternative to relying on standard likelihood maximization, the adoption of a fully Bayesian paradigm is explored, that relies on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) stochastic simulation and provides the posterior distributions of the model parameters. The proposed method is applied to one‐ and two‐factor stochastic models, using both simulated and real data. The results demonstrate good agreement between the maximum likelihood and MCMC point estimates. The latter approach, however, provides a more complete characterization of the model uncertainty, an information that can be exploited to obtain a more realistic assessment of the forecasting error. In order to further validate the MCMC approach, the posterior distribution of the Italian electricity price volatility is explored for different maturities and compared with the corresponding maximum likelihood estimates.