Premium
Model selection of a switching mechanism for financial time series
Author(s) -
Truong BuuChau,
Chen Cathy W. S.,
So Mike K. P.
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
applied stochastic models in business and industry
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.413
H-Index - 40
eISSN - 1526-4025
pISSN - 1524-1904
DOI - 10.1002/asmb.2205
Subject(s) - autoregressive model , autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity , econometrics , bayesian probability , deviance information criterion , heteroscedasticity , markov chain monte carlo , computer science , bayesian inference , nonlinear autoregressive exogenous model , model selection , bayesian information criterion , skew , markov chain , economics , volatility (finance) , artificial intelligence , machine learning , telecommunications
The threshold autoregressive model with generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic (GARCH) specification is a popular nonlinear model that captures the well‐known asymmetric phenomena in financial market data. The switching mechanisms of hysteretic autoregressive GARCH models are different from threshold autoregressive model with GARCH as regime switching may be delayed when the hysteresis variable lies in a hysteresis zone. This paper conducts a Bayesian model comparison among competing models by designing an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling scheme. We illustrate the performance of three kinds of criteria by comparing models with fat‐tailed and/or skewed errors: deviance information criteria, Bayesian predictive information, and an asymptotic version of Bayesian predictive information. A simulation study highlights the properties of the three Bayesian criteria and the accuracy as well as their favorable performance as model selection tools. We demonstrate the proposed method in an empirical study of 12 international stock markets, providing evidence to strongly support for both models with skew fat‐tailed innovations. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.