Open AccessHow does model development affect climate projections?
Author(s) -
Ylhäisi Jussi S.,
Räisänen Jouni,
Masson David,
Räty Olle,
Järvinen Heikki
Publication year - 2015
Publication title -
atmospheric science letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.951
H-Index - 45
ISSN - 1530-261X
DOI - 10.1002/asl2.577
Subject(s) - climatology , climate model , weighting , precipitation , environmental science , climate change , variance (accounting) , econometrics , sea ice , meteorology , mathematics , geography , geology , oceanography , economics , medicine , accounting , radiology
We apply analysis of variance to assess the effect of climate model development on temperature, precipitation and sea level pressure projections using three consecutive climate model generations provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The introduction of a new model version mostly randomly affects individual model projections, but models also show some generation‐independent characteristics which can potentially serve a basis for model weighting. Mean values of temperature and pressure change differ significantly between the model generations only over limited regions, mainly near the sea‐ice edge. If multi‐model ensembles are uniformly weighted, the efforts of model development are not completely exploited.