Open AccessAn examination of potential seasonal predictability in recent reanalyses
Author(s) -
Feng Xia,
Houser Paul
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
atmospheric science letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.951
H-Index - 45
ISSN - 1530-261X
DOI - 10.1002/asl2.498
Subject(s) - predictability , climatology , precipitation , environmental science , climate forecast system , meteorology , geography , mathematics , statistics , geology
This study examined potential seasonal predictability of precipitation and 2‐m temperature in the recent global reanalyses from 1979 to 2012. The reanalyses being investigated are R1 , R2 , ERA ‐40, JRA25 , ERA ‐I, MERRA , CFSR and 20CR . When compared against Global Precipitation Climatology Project ( GPCP ) precipitation, ERA ‐I and CFSR provide the best estimates of potential predictability, MERRA , R1 and R2 overestimate predictability and ERA ‐40 and JRA25 are unrealistic in the tropics. Predictability estimates of 2‐m temperature from 20CR , JRA25 , R1 , MERRA , CFSR and R2 exhibit better agreement with the reanalysis ensemble mean than ERA ‐40 and ERA ‐I, which identify less predictability .