Open AccessClimatic attribution at the regional scale: a case study on the role of circulation patterns and external forcings
Author(s) -
Pasini Antonello,
Modugno Giancarlo
Publication year - 2013
Publication title -
atmospheric science letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.951
H-Index - 45
ISSN - 1530-261X
DOI - 10.1002/asl2.463
Subject(s) - climatology , general circulation model , attribution , environmental science , scale (ratio) , circulation (fluid dynamics) , climate change , atmospheric sciences , geography , geology , thermodynamics , physics , oceanography , psychology , social psychology , cartography
At the regional scale, enhanced climatic variability masks the role of external forcings. It has been shown that a consistent attribution of regional temperature behaviour can be achieved just by considering circulation patterns as driving elements. Here we address this question: is the role of external forcings completely hidden in the changes of circulation patterns (eventually induced by them), or is there evidence of a more direct role for these forcings? Performing a fully nonlinear analysis shows that a direct role for anthropogenic forcings can be detected also at this regional scale, while natural forcings do not seem to influence temperature behaviour .