Open AccessAn event attribution of the 2010 drought in the South Amazon region using the MIROC5 model
Author(s) -
Shiogama Hideo,
Watanabe Masahiro,
Imada Yukiko,
Mori Masato,
Ishii Masayoshi,
Kimoto Masahide
Publication year - 2013
Publication title -
atmospheric science letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.951
H-Index - 45
ISSN - 1530-261X
DOI - 10.1002/asl2.435
Subject(s) - forcing (mathematics) , climatology , amazon rainforest , environmental science , precipitation , atmospheric sciences , sea surface temperature , counterfactual thinking , aerosol , greenhouse gas , attribution , natural (archaeology) , meteorology , geography , oceanography , geology , psychology , ecology , social psychology , philosophy , archaeology , epistemology , biology
We produced 100‐member event attribution ensembles during 2009–2012 under all forcing conditions and in two different counterfactual worlds without anthropogenic forcing (mainly greenhouse gases and aerosols) and without aerosol emission changes using the MIROC5 atmospheric general circulation model. It seemed that both human influences and the sea surface temperature ( SST ) natural variability increased probabilities of the 2010 severe drought in the South Amazon region, and that changes in aerosols emissions had little effect on the drought. It should be noted that our assessments were sensitive to bias corrections according to the relationships between the SST natural variability and precipitation.