Open AccessSub‐seasonal predictability of the 2017–2018 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season
Author(s) -
Gregory Paul A.,
Camp Joanne,
Bigelow Katrina,
Brown Andrew
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
atmospheric science letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.951
H-Index - 45
ISSN - 1530-261X
DOI - 10.1002/asl.886
Subject(s) - climatology , predictability , tropical cyclone , extratropical cyclone , cyclone (programming language) , tropical cyclone scales , environmental science , forecast skill , southern hemisphere , northern hemisphere , tropical cyclone rainfall forecasting , landfall , meteorology , geography , geology , mathematics , engineering , statistics , field programmable gate array , embedded system
Multi‐week forecasts of tropical cyclone genesis are evaluated for the 2017–2018 Southern Hemisphere cyclone season. These forecasts were created with the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's new seasonal forecast system, ACCESS‐S. Forecast performance over the season showed positive Brier Skill Scores with good forecast reliability and improved skill over climatology out to week 3. ACCESS‐S provided guidance of the formation of major cyclone events during the season at more than 2 weeks lead time, including Cyclone Gita in the South Pacific which later devastated Tonga, and the landfall of Cyclone Hilda in western Australia.