Open AccessProjected trends of extreme rainfall events from CMIP5 models over Central Africa
Author(s) -
FotsoNguemo Thierry C.,
Chamani Roméo,
Yepdo Zéphirin D.,
Sonkoué Denis,
Matsaguim Cédric N.,
Vondou Derbetini A.,
Tanessong Roméo S.
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
atmospheric science letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.951
H-Index - 45
ISSN - 1530-261X
DOI - 10.1002/asl.803
Subject(s) - climatology , environmental science , percentile , climate change , geography , climate model , geology , mathematics , statistics , oceanography
In this study, the projections of daily rainfall from an ensemble mean of 20 global climate models (GCMs) are used to examine projected trends in heavy rainfall distribution over Central Africa (CA), under the representative concentration pathway 8.5. For this purpose, two analyses periods of 40‐years have been selected (2006–2045 and 2056–2095) to compute trends in the 90th and 99th percentiles of the daily rainfall distributions. We found that large increase trend is mostly found in the 99th percentile of rainfall events, over southern Chad, northern Cameroon, northern Zambia, and in the Great Lakes Area. This can be attributed to the increase of moisture convergence intensified by the presence of the Congo Basin rainforest. It is also shown that the largest number of GCMs with a trend of the same sign as the average trend is observed over the above regions. It is thus clear that the projected increase trends in heavy rainfall events may further worse floods which are real problems in the CA countries. Therefore, strong subregional policies are needed to help design effective adaptation and mitigation measures for the region's countries.