Open AccessPrediction and attribution of quiescent tropical cyclone activity in the early summer of 2016: case study of lingering effects by preceding strong El Niño events
Author(s) -
Takaya Yuhei,
Kubo Yutaro,
Maeda Shuhei,
Hirahara Shoji
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
atmospheric science letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.951
H-Index - 45
ISSN - 1530-261X
DOI - 10.1002/asl.760
Subject(s) - anomaly (physics) , climatology , tropical cyclone , sea surface temperature , tropical atlantic , environmental science , troposphere , anticyclone , atmospheric sciences , atmosphere (unit) , geology , meteorology , geography , physics , condensed matter physics
The ocean modulates seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the western North Pacific in various ways. This study investigates mechanisms contributing to the quiescent TC activity during the early summer (May–July) of 2016 using an atmosphere – ocean coupled model. Numerical simulations indicate that the Indian Ocean warming induced by the preceding El Niño dominantly contributed to the quiescent TC activity, implying high predictability of seasonal TC activity in the early summer.