Open AccessConnection of predictability of major stratospheric sudden warmings to polar vortex geometry
Author(s) -
Taguchi Masakazu
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
atmospheric science letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.951
H-Index - 45
ISSN - 1530-261X
DOI - 10.1002/asl.595
Subject(s) - polar vortex , predictability , vortex , polar , climatology , atmospheric sciences , stratosphere , connection (principal bundle) , geometry , geology , meteorology , physics , environmental science , mathematics , astronomy , quantum mechanics
This study explores a possible connection between predictability variations of major stratospheric sudden warmings ( MSSWs ) during Northern winter and the geometry of the polar vortex. We compare 1‐month hindcasts from 1979 to 2012 of the Japan Meteorological Agency to the Japanese 55‐year Reanalysis data. Results show that error variations of medium range (≈14 day) forecasts of 21 actual MSSWs do depend on the observed geometry of the polar vortex: the errors are larger for vortex split MSSWs when the polar vortex is highly stretched as characterized by a high aspect ratio and an amplified zonal wavenumber 2 component.