Open AccessObserved 21st century temperatures further constrain likely rates of future warming
Author(s) -
Stott Peter A.,
Jones Gareth S.
Publication year - 2012
Publication title -
atmospheric science letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.951
H-Index - 45
ISSN - 1530-261X
DOI - 10.1002/asl.383
Subject(s) - global warming , climate change , climatology , environmental science , oceanography , geology
We carry out a detection and attribution analysis of observed near‐surface temperatures to 2010 and demonstrate that the signal of human influence on climate has strengthened over the first decade of the 21st century. As a result, we show that global warming is set to continue, with the second decade of the 21st century predicted to be very likely warmer than the first. Estimates of future warming rates consistent with observations of past climate change are now better constrained than they were a decade ago. The highest rates of warming previously consistent with past warming now appear to be unlikely. © 2012 British Crown copyright, the Met Office. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.