Open AccessA contribution to attribution of recent global warming by out‐of‐sample Granger causality analysis
Author(s) -
Attanasio Alessandro,
Pasini Antonello,
Triacca Umberto
Publication year - 2011
Publication title -
atmospheric science letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.951
H-Index - 45
ISSN - 1530-261X
DOI - 10.1002/asl.365
Subject(s) - granger causality , global warming , causality (physics) , econometrics , climatology , forcing (mathematics) , greenhouse gas , attribution , global temperature , sample (material) , economics , climate change , environmental science , geology , psychology , physics , thermodynamics , social psychology , oceanography , quantum mechanics
The topic of attribution of recent global warming is usually faced by studies performed through global climate models (GCMs). Even simpler econometric models have been applied to this problem, but they led to contrasting results. In this article, we show that a genuine predictive approach of Granger analysis leads to overcome problems shown by these models and to obtain a clear signal of linear Granger causality from greenhouse gases (GHGs) to the global temperature of the second half of the 20th century. In contrast, Granger causality is not evident using time series of natural forcing. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society