Open AccessEnsemble forecasting using TIGGE for the July–September 2008 floods in the Upper Huai catchment: a case study
Author(s) -
He Yi,
Wetterhall Fredrik,
Bao Hongjun,
Cloke Hannah,
Li Zhijia,
Pappenberger Florian,
Hu Yuzhong,
Manful Desmond,
Huang Yingchun
Publication year - 2010
Publication title -
atmospheric science letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.951
H-Index - 45
ISSN - 1530-261X
DOI - 10.1002/asl.270
Subject(s) - flood myth , flood forecasting , environmental science , precipitation , climatology , meteorology , warning system , drainage basin , flood warning , lead time , geography , computer science , cartography , geology , telecommunications , archaeology , marketing , business
We present a case study using the TIGGE database for flood warning in the Upper Huai catchment (ca. 30 672 km 2 ). TIGGE ensemble forecasts from 6 meteorological centres with 10‐day lead time were extracted and disaggregated to drive the Xinanjiang model to forecast discharges for flood events in July‐September 2008. The results demonstrated satisfactory flood forecasting skills with clear signals of floods up to 10 days in advance. The forecasts occasionally show discrepancies both in time and space. Forecasting quality could potentially be improved by using temporal and spatial corrections of the forecasted precipitation. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society