Open AccessUncertainties in future projections of extreme precipitation in the Indian monsoon region
Author(s) -
Turner A. G.,
Slingo J. M.
Publication year - 2009
Publication title -
atmospheric science letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.951
H-Index - 45
ISSN - 1530-261X
DOI - 10.1002/asl.223
Subject(s) - climatology , precipitation , monsoon , climate change , environmental science , climate model , spatial distribution , boreal , global warming , percentile , atmospheric sciences , meteorology , geography , geology , mathematics , oceanography , statistics , remote sensing , archaeology
Uncertainties in changes to the spatial distribution and magnitude of the heaviest extremes of daily monsoon rainfall over India are assessed in the doubled CO 2 climate change scenarios in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. Results show diverse changes to the spatial pattern of the 95th and 99th subseasonal percentiles, which are strongly tied to the mean precipitation change during boreal summer. In some models, the projected increase in heaviest rainfall over India at CO 2 doubling is entirely predictable based upon the surface warming and the Clausius–Clapeyron relation, a result which may depend upon the choice of convection scheme. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society and Crown Copyright