Open AccessA national assessment of the sensitivity of Australian runoff to climate change
Author(s) -
Preston B. L.,
Jones R.
Publication year - 2008
Publication title -
atmospheric science letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.951
H-Index - 45
ISSN - 1530-261X
DOI - 10.1002/asl.188
Subject(s) - surface runoff , evapotranspiration , environmental science , climate change , precipitation , gcm transcription factors , climatology , sensitivity (control systems) , runoff curve number , water resources , hydrology (agriculture) , general circulation model , meteorology , geography , geology , ecology , oceanography , geotechnical engineering , electronic engineering , engineering , biology
The relationship between catchment rainfall, evapotranspiration and runoff can be exploited to assess climate risk to water resources. National data regarding climatology and runoff were used to estimate the sensitivity of regional runoff to projected changes in precipitation and evaporation. These sensitivity factors were integrated with patterns of climate change from 12 different global climate model (GCM) simulations to project future annual runoff sensitivity per degree of global mean temperature change. Divergent runoff sensitivities were identified depending upon the selected GCM. Averaging among GCMs resulted in a robust pattern of runoff sensitivity suitable for estimating future climate risk. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society