Open AccessExperimental ensemble forecasts of precipitation based on a convection‐resolving model
Author(s) -
Gebhardt Christoph,
Theis Susanne,
Krahe Peter,
Renner Volker
Publication year - 2008
Publication title -
atmospheric science letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.951
H-Index - 45
ISSN - 1530-261X
DOI - 10.1002/asl.177
Subject(s) - predictability , convection , precipitation , ensemble forecasting , meteorology , homogeneity (statistics) , climatology , environmental science , statistical physics , computer science , mathematics , geology , physics , statistics , machine learning
We present the idea and the very first results of an “Experimental ensemble based on the COSMO‐DE (EELMK)”. The aim is to understand predictability limits of precipitation forecasts on the convective scale. Ensemble techniques with convection‐resolving models are a new field of research. We investigate forecast uncertainties due to imperfect model physics and lateral boundary conditions. The initial case studies demonstrate the potential of EELMK to generate variability between ensemble members in terms of spatial homogeneity and intensity of precipitation. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society