Open AccessOn adapting PQPFs to fit hydrological needs: the case of flash flood forecasting
Author(s) -
Marty R.,
Zin I.,
Obled Ch.
Publication year - 2008
Publication title -
atmospheric science letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.951
H-Index - 45
ISSN - 1530-261X
DOI - 10.1002/asl.176
Subject(s) - flash flood , flood forecasting , flood myth , precipitation , probabilistic logic , meteorology , environmental science , climatology , matching (statistics) , ensemble forecasting , probabilistic forecasting , computer science , statistics , geography , mathematics , geology , artificial intelligence , archaeology
A simple, but rather complete hydro‐meteorological system for ensemble flash flood forecasting is described. Special focus is put on the use of precipitation forecasts, essentially quantitative and overall probabilistic (PQPFs). A first issue addressed concerns the matching of the time‐step used by the meteorological forecasts providers (12 or 24 h) with the appropriate hydrological time‐step for quick responding catchments (1 h or less). A second issue concerns the forecasts management between two updating cycles of the PQPFs. Finally, ensemble discharge forecasts for a case‐study event observed in Vogüé (South‐eastern France) are illustrated as an application of our flood forecasting system. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society