On adapting PQPFs to fit hydrological needs: the case of flash flood forecasting | Zendy

Marty R. | Zendy; Zin I. | Zendy; Obled Ch. | Zendy

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On adapting PQPFs to fit hydrological needs: the case of flash flood forecasting

Author(s) -

Marty R.,

Zin I.,

Obled Ch.

Publication year - 2008

Publication title -

atmospheric science letters

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 0.951

H-Index - 45

ISSN - 1530-261X

DOI - 10.1002/asl.176

Subject(s) - flash flood , flood forecasting , flood myth , precipitation , probabilistic logic , meteorology , environmental science , climatology , matching (statistics) , ensemble forecasting , probabilistic forecasting , computer science , statistics , geography , mathematics , geology , artificial intelligence , archaeology

A simple, but rather complete hydro‐meteorological system for ensemble flash flood forecasting is described. Special focus is put on the use of precipitation forecasts, essentially quantitative and overall probabilistic (PQPFs). A first issue addressed concerns the matching of the time‐step used by the meteorological forecasts providers (12 or 24 h) with the appropriate hydrological time‐step for quick responding catchments (1 h or less). A second issue concerns the forecasts management between two updating cycles of the PQPFs. Finally, ensemble discharge forecasts for a case‐study event observed in Vogüé (South‐eastern France) are illustrated as an application of our flood forecasting system. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

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