Open AccessGrowth in Densely Populated A sia: Implications for Primary Product Exporters
Author(s) -
Anderson Kym,
Strutt Anna
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
asia and the pacific policy studies
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.529
H-Index - 14
ISSN - 2050-2680
DOI - 10.1002/app5.14
Subject(s) - baseline (sea) , economics , china , gross domestic product , consumption (sociology) , product (mathematics) , agriculture , natural resource , resource (disambiguation) , international trade , production (economics) , agricultural economics , international economics , natural resource economics , geography , macroeconomics , ecology , social science , computer network , oceanography , geometry , mathematics , archaeology , sociology , geology , biology , computer science
Economic growth and integration in A sia is rapidly increasing the global economic importance of the region. To the extent that this growth continues and is strongest in natural resource‐poor A sian economies, it will add to global demand for imports of primary products, to the benefit of (especially nearby) resource‐abundant countries. How will global production, consumption and trade patterns change by 2030 in the course of such economic developments and structural changes? We address this question using the GTAP model and V ersion 8.1 of the 2007 GTAP database, together with supplementary data from a range of sources, to support projections of the global economy from 2007 to 2030 under various scenarios. Factor endowments and real gross domestic product are assumed to grow at exogenous rates, and trade‐related policies are kept unchanged to generate a core baseline, which is compared with an alternative slower growth scenario. We also consider the impact of several policy changes aimed at increasing C hina's agricultural self‐sufficiency relative to the 2030 baseline. Policy implications for countries of the A sia‐ P acific region are drawn out in the final section.