Testing the equivalence of modern human cranial covariance structure: Implications for bioarchaeological applications

Objectives Estimation of the variance‐covariance (V/CV) structure of fragmentary bioarchaeological populations requires the use of proxy extant V/CV parameters. However, it is currently unclear whether extant human populations exhibit equivalent V/CV structures. Materials and Methods Random skewers (RS) and hierarchical analyses of common principal components (CPC) were applied to a modern human cranial dataset. Cranial V/CV similarity was assessed globally for samples of individual populations (jackknifed method) and for pairwise population sample contrasts. The results were examined in light of potential explanatory factors for covariance difference, such as geographic region, among‐group distance, and sample size. Results RS analyses showed that population samples exhibited highly correlated multivariate responses to selection, and that differences in RS results were primarily a consequence of differences in sample size. The CPC method yielded mixed results, depending upon the statistical criterion used to evaluate the hierarchy. The hypothesis‐testing (step‐up) approach was deemed problematic due to sensitivity to low statistical power and elevated Type I errors. In contrast, the model‐fitting (lowest AIC) approach suggested that V/CV matrices were proportional and/or shared a large number of CPCs. Pairwise population sample CPC results were correlated with cranial distance, suggesting that population history explains some of the variability in V/CV structure among groups. Discussion The results indicate that patterns of covariance in human craniometric samples are broadly similar but not identical. These findings have important implications for choosing extant covariance matrices to use as proxy V/CV parameters in evolutionary analyses of past populations.