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Model life table fitting by maximum likelihood estimation: A procedure to reconstruct paleodemographic characteristics from skeletal age distributions
Author(s) -
Paine Richard R.
Publication year - 1989
Publication title -
american journal of physical anthropology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.146
H-Index - 119
eISSN - 1096-8644
pISSN - 0002-9483
DOI - 10.1002/ajpa.1330790106
Subject(s) - life expectancy , statistics , maximum likelihood , estimation , range (aeronautics) , mathematics , regression , regression analysis , econometrics , demography , population , engineering , systems engineering , sociology , aerospace engineering
A procedure is presented that uses the regression coefficients for the Coale and Demeny west model life tables to model selected demographic characteristics from skeletal age‐at‐death distributions. Model death distributions were constructed and compared to a given skeletal distribution, using methods of maximum likelihood estimation to determine the best fit. Two chisquare tests are employed to evaluate the degree of fit. The resulting model includes estimates of demographic characteristics including gross reproductive rate, crude birth rate and life expectancy. The procedure is applied to three archaeological skeletal samples as test cases: two from eastern North America and one from Mexico. These display a range of correspondence (between the best fitting model and the data) from good to poor. The proposed procedure is a potentially powerful tool for both reconstructing paleodemographic rates and illuminating differences between typical human patterns and those found in archaeological populations.