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Social networks of disease spread in the lower illinois valley: A simulation approach
Author(s) -
McGrath Janet W.
Publication year - 1988
Publication title -
american journal of physical anthropology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.146
H-Index - 119
eISSN - 1096-8644
pISSN - 0002-9483
DOI - 10.1002/ajpa.1330770409
Subject(s) - woodland , population , geography , extinction (optical mineralogy) , simulation modeling , ecology , disease , population size , demography , biology , mathematics , medicine , paleontology , mathematical economics , pathology , sociology
This study illustrates the use of disease modeling and simulation techniques to the study of the spread of disease within and between social networks. A Reed‐Frost type model of disease spread is used to construct a simulation of the spread of tuberculosis within three prehistoric populations of the Lower Illinois River Valley during Middle Woodland, Late Woodland, and Mississippian times. A high and low population size was modeled for each time period. Late Woodland model 2 (low population estimate) is the only model that experienced pathogen extinction with host survival. The rest of the models experienced rapid and severe host population decline. The results of the simulation suggest that a social network size of between 180 and 440 persons is required under the conditions of this model for host‐pathogen coexistence (i.e., endemicity) to occur. The severe population decline experienced by these populations suggests that tuberculosis as modeled here could not have existed in these populations. Future refinements of modeling and simulation techniques can provide additional insights into how disease spreads among social contacts.